What a difference a few months make
Almost one month since my last one-liner post. Many things have happened and in this hiatus of not penning down my thoughts, feelings and experiences, I have seen some very wonderful things and some changes in my life.
As mentioned, my family came to visit a couple of weeks ago. They were here just a short 2 weeks, but during this time, we had a family vacation all together after almost 5 years; they saw latin america, and more specifically Argentina, for the first time, and they loved it; we had fights and arguments, but also much laughter and more importantly fun together as a family that cares and truly loves each other. It was impossible to believe how fast the 13 days flew by and in a rare glimpse of time, they teleported back to hot, sunny, flooding Singapore.
During the last one month, I also started working here in Argentina. I now work in a small firm of stock analysts, (thankfully I work in English) and everyday I’m learning more and more. And each day I realise how much more I have to learn. But the miracle is that my colleagues are amazingly helpful and nice; at least I haven’t seen the politics that I was so well-prepared for in my former bank; at least I have a boss who is upfront and usually in a good mood; at least I don’t wonder all the time if my boss really is a hypocrite at heart; and they even pay for lunches – everyday! Yes, that also means you eat in and work at your desk literally from 9am-6pm; the only exercise that I get nowadays is the back and fro 100m walk from the subway station to my office.
I realised that my previous experience in SCB has shaped alot of the ways I do things; the way I treat my colleagues, the secretary, my boss, and also the way I am more keen on working hard at improving what I currently do. I don’t dread the late hours or coming in the earliest anymore; I don’t even mind eating at my desk during lunch when I used to complain when I even had to do it at all; and I don’t even mind that my salary has been greatly reduced because of the change in currency; which doesn’t keep up with inflation in a land of high living costs.
4 months ago, I quit my former job and bought my ticket to go halfway round the world, no job in store, income-less and friendless in this part of the world (ok, I did know J’s family and alot of his friends, but still it’s different when you actually have your own friends). I left my family and friends in southeast Asia and started a completely different phase of life. I found out that after a period of separation, there are some friends who no longer keep in touch; others only because of the easy facility of facebook, and then those others, the jems who make it a point to connect with you no matter what, to remember you when they buy something, just because they had you in mind. There were days I felt lonely, and suffered from a lack of personal space, yet lacked the confidence and security that Singapore offered to be able to venture out alone. Yet with necessity and time, I manouveured my way around Buenos Aires, brushed up my Spanish and even attained a level that allowed me to be my family’s tourguide around the city, without any external help. Now I’m working again, after a break of a couple of months, and I’m really enjoying it.
8 months ago, at the start of this year, I greeted 1st January 2010 with fireworks in Hong Kong, together with Val and Aunty Adeline’s family. It was a wonderful beginning stuffing ourselves with yummy cantonese dim sum and heavenly desserts. I was still floatingly rotating on my International Graduate program, and had no idea what I wanted to do for a living. Then I joined the Global Research desk, where I had a thoroughly enjoyable 2 months working with a team of people that I honestly respected and admired. I realized that work could actually be fulfilling. And that when I enjoyed my work, my bosses appreciated the output and insight I contributed. I had to some pretty tough decisions to make then, but I made them and they served me very well. I keep in touch with ex-colleagues from SCB and when they talk to me about work – telling me they can’t wait to leave and that so many of those that I started out with have already left – I think to myself, thank God I made the right choice and left; and that I didnt waste my last 4 months complaining about a situation I had the power to change. I still remember thinking that I had no idea what 2010 would bring me, and lo and behold, it is already the middle of August.
What a difference a short span of time makes, and what a difference honestly, when you dare to make the boldest and bravest decisions, because you never really know how much you gain unless you take the first step forward and try it. I’m sooo glad I did!
Bending, not bowing, in the Economist terms
A year ago, the dollar was probably not the currency you would want to invest in; alternatives like the euro were more highly sought after.
A year later on, today, the euro has fallen and taken a hard hit since Greece and its other south European neighbours started showing signs of trouble. In a state of panic, worries abounded that the global economy will not recover as quickly because of contagion between Greece and its southern continental counterparts. The dollar, which has almost always been a safe haven in times of trouble, started rebounding, and getting stronger.
And with Tim Geithner delaying the report to condemn China as a currency manipulator, will we be seeing China bending halfway to de-peg the Yuan? The Chinese mentality must be understood for anyone to play mind games or psychoanalyze any Chinese giant, country or person. As Sun Tzu said in his very famous quote – “Know your enemy and yourself, a hundred battles, a hundred won.” In a way, this ancient Chinese proverb is extremely apt in the currency conflict between USA and China. When USA tried to throw its weight around by threatening to impose import tariffs, the last thing China would do is to bow and give in to demands which would make the Middle Country appear subservient to the Land of the Free.
In Chinese culture, (I can say this because I am of the Chinese race), the concept of “face” is of crucial importance. Anyone dealing with Chinese for anything should always heed my word of caution – If a Chinese finds himself in a situation where doing something will cause him to “lose face”, or to look like he has lost and has to give in to another, the Chinese is probably going to find every way not to do it. Even if there might be some benefits to agreeing with another party and acting out in both their interests, if there is any way outsiders would see the situation and diagnose that the Chinese is giving in to the other, defences will be up and mighty sky-high. However, if there was a way to put the suggestion across without making it seem that the Chinese guy is conceding to demands of someone else, but in a way that makes it look like the Chinese has decided to do something out of his own accord and graciousness, the chances of a deal happening increase rapidly.
A lot of time is wasted, because the final outcome reached might be the same if they Chinese had just conceded in the first instance, or if the Chinese decided to act in his generosity. Yet, many non-Chinese, and perhaps Westerners particularly, fail to understand this pertinent concept. In my experience with talking to Western colleagues and first hand experience in seeing the way they handle situations, I understand the they are generally more straightforward and don’t beat about the bush. They want something, they say it directly, whether or not it makes the other party look bad. In a completely Western society, this would be the most efficient and quickest method to getting things done. But in a society where the Chinese are increasingly powerful and don’t need to kiss anybody’s feet anymore, this attitude will lead to plenty of time wasting and sour relations, as news reports on deteriorating US-Sino relations have clearly shown.
It appears that Geithner may have done some studying of Chinese attitudes and what is important to them and their “face” – he seems to have chosen the right diplomatic tool this time. Will the Chinese now give “face”? The saga continues….
How long can the dollar remain on its pedestal?
It’ll be a long time before the dollar will be phased out as the world’s reserve currency. According to IMF data, allocated world holdings of the USD in 2008 totalled USD2.7 trillion, and with its nearest competitor, the Euro, only at a total of USD1.1 trillion in world holdings, it seems the USD still has a strong lead in the race.
However, if we noticed that USD holdings in 2000 was only 1.1trillion, it goes to say that in just 8 years, total world holdings of the dollar almost tripled, particularly in the period 2002-2007. before 2004, most of hte increase was attributable to advanced economies, but from 2006-2007, it was emerging and developing economies that ramped up dollar holdings. China must have played a large part in this, as it rapidly increased its holdings of US debt in those years, with at least USD1.3 trillion woth of foreign reserves, a large increase over the years in its effort to intervene in keeping its RMB currency cheap.
An intriguing point to note is the fact that after from 2007 to 2008, USD holdings by emerging and developing economies practically plateaued; while their holdings of EUR kept increasing, although at a slower pace. It was also during that period of time when China started to be more proactive in diversifying its FX reserves protfolio, and started entering into currency swap agreements with its major trade partners. In these swap agreements, China allows its the countries to which it exports to pay it in Renminbi instead of dollars.
China has made rather explicit remarks that it the dominance of the dollar as a worldwide reserve currency should and will end soon, yet there is a peculiar dilema that China is facing. As much as China would like to deviate from being overly reliant on the dollar, so much of its assets and foreign reserves consist of the dollar that dumping it suddenly and heavily will be China kicking itself in its foot. So rather than dumping, what is more sensible is exactly what China is doing – increasing reserves of other currencies by taking up debt other than from the US.
So, the shifting away from USD as the world’s reserve currency will be gradual, not overnight, but certainly inevitable. If China were to continue diversifying at at accelerating pace, then it’s uncertain how long or how quick it will take for the another currency to replace the dollar.
Singapore FDI
Interesting trends – Direct investment abroad and to Singapore show the importance on which Singapore and investing countries place on particular industries – hinting at the potential growth here and elsewhere.
Wikipedia states that “Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a measure of foreign ownership of productive assets, such as factories, mines and land. Increasing foreign investment can be used as one measure of growing economic globalization. “
Direct Investment Abroad:
Singapore has since the start of the new millenium (this data set is from 2000-2007) constantly invested in ASEAN (US$58 billion) and South and Central America and the Carribean [SCAC] (US$52 billion), but from 2006, there has been a clear trend that investment in ASEAN is surpassing that in the latter. Understandably, there are many natural resources in SCAC that Singapore would like to benefit from, but it does makes more sense that ASEAN, particularly after the Global Financial Crisis, will play a bigger partner for Singapore to invest in, with intra-regional trade gaining weight. Apart from these two groups, the next focus for Singapore’s investment abroad is certainly, and most sensibly, China. In 2007, China is the largest recipient of Singapore’s investment. However, the rate China is growing at and its increasing importance makes it is highly possible that during the next FDI statistics update, China will be number one. Europe follows closely to China (at least up to 2007), and in the years since 2005 the pace of growth in investment to Europe has picked up speed, highlighting interest in the West. This trend is similarly refected in investment to the EU and UK. What surprises is that investment in the States, while on the rise since 2006, is much smaller than expected given the huge size of the world’s number one economy. That said, the States is now on an undeniable decline. Investment in Hong Kong and Australia are around the same amount as that in the US (all three are within the US$13-15 billion range), yet investment in Hong Kong seems to be reaching a plateau, while that in Australia is rising at an increasing pace. Australia is a place close to many Singaporeans’ hearts. With many family and friends migrating to Australia since a long time ago, whether for retirement, studies, marriage, work, the country down under has landed its spot as a place attracting much Singapore investment in property. Not just that, Australia is rich in natural resources and naturally sees a quickening pace of inflows.
FDI in Singapore:
Singapore is a small island nation, but in the last 45 years it has proved that even if country is without much of its own natural resources, much can still be done and under the leadership of the People’s Action Party, there has been political stability (where forced or naturally) and huge economic progress (imagine a fishing village 45 years ago and the huge global and financial huge it is now). There are hence obvious reasons why this makes Singapore a natural place for FDI inflows. US$440 billion was invested by foreignors into Singapore in 2007, with almost half of it contributed by Europe, and majority of that naturally came from the EU. Asia contributed a quarter of total FDI in Singapore at US$101 billion, with South and Central America coming next up at US$78 billion. The Netherlands, United States and Japan each invest around US$50 billion in Singapore, but the difference is that in the years 2001-2007, investment from the Netherlands, and Japan has grown flat, while the US has ramped up its investment into Singapore by 10% from 2006-2007. Switzerland, at US$26 billion, comes in below the aforementioned countries, but still above the cluster right at the bottom led by ASEAN (US$16 billion).
Gross external debt – How scary is it?
According to IMF’s guide to External Debt, “Gross external debt, at any given time, is the outstanding amount of those actual current, and not contingent, liabilities that require payment(s) of principal and/or interest by the debtor at some point(s) in the future and that are owed to nonresidents by residents of an economy. Generally external debt is classified into four heads i.e. (1) public and publicly guaranteed debt, (2) private non-guaranteed credits, (3) central bank deposits, and (4) loans due to the IMF. However the exact treatment varies from country to country.”
The US and UK come in top 2 in the competition of biggest gross external debt among selected countries. The US has been for the l2 years constantly hovering around US$14 trillion, while the the UK external debt position has decreased over the last 2 years, staying roughly at US$9 trillion since mid Q209. Further down the line are Germany and France, moving almost in tandem with each other, and since Q109 have been on the slow increased upwards, and around US$5.3 trillion as of Q309.
The next close cluster of countries in this data set is made up of Italy, Spain and Japan, which have been up and down since Q407 but staying mostly within the range of US$2-3 trillion. In the lowest rung, countries with less than US$1 trillion of debt as of Q309, in descending order are are Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Greece, Russia, Korea, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Argentina, South Africa, Thailand.
Suddenly it appears that the most developed countries (US, UK, EU nations and Japan) have relatively alot more gross external debt than the less developed nations, which also form the emerging markets. This is an interesting observation as I had originally expected that the poorer nations would be the ones sinking in debt, and not the other way round.
Yet looking at the absolute values of gross external debt may be a biased argument. A country may have alot of gross external debt, but if measured as a proportion of GDP, it may tell us a different story. As a measure of sustainablity of external debt, this might provide some insight on the ability of a country to finance its debt and how unhealthy its external debt position really is.
Using this measure instead, we see that the UK is now right at the top (421% at end 2009), followed by, but not closely, Hong Kong at 316%. Trailing further behind is France at 200%, then Spain, Italy and Germany at 176%, 165% and 130%. So far, the results tally with the gross observations.
However, it is now surprising to see that the US, whose absolute gross external debt at Q309 was a towering US$14 trillion, has a gross external debt to GDP ratio of only 96% (compared to the UK, which was just 2nd behind the US in gross terms but as a proportion stands at 421%.) Canada is also not too far behind at 68%. The other countries in the data set (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Greece, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Russia, South Africa, Thailand) fall in the seemingly healthy range of 25-50% range.
The sheer magnitude of the US economy, first in the world and unrivalled even by its closest competitors, is perhaps the reason why proportionally, US external debt looks less scary than the absolute figures. However, that means the external debt from just the US alone is almost as huge as the entire American economy – Now maybe that’s something to worry about.
Inscribing the history of today.
2010 marks the last year of the first decade of the third millennium. Indeed, it was also the decade that has been most marked in my memory, partially because I was growing up and made more aware of the events which though outside my circle of comfort, still managed to shake those, including me, inside our zone. But not only was I becoming more worldly-wise, it was also the degree of shock which emanated throughout the world as some events shook it, both psychologically and literally.
2000: My family had booked a room at the 52nd storey of Westin Stamford Hotel, in a bid to celebrate the New Year and watch from above should predictions come true that technology would be severely disrupted, as machines were not programmed to run past 1999. I remember us staying our prayers and thanking God for the new year and the years past, and then opening my eyes the moment it struck 12 midnight, looking down at the rest of the city below. Surprise and relief, as we saw the cars still lighting the streets with their pretty headlights, and the blueprint of our city still visible, lit by electrical cables which kept all technical appliances running like clockwork. All was alright again. I breathed a huge sigh of relief. Suddenly the rest of the year flew by, and arrived astonishingly quickly at December, the month that Bush Jr won the elections, taking over Bill Clinton as president of the USA. Still young and not particularly keen on politics, I only remember seeing the debates on TV and that the world seemed eager to assess to the new of state as he took on the toughest job in the world.
2001: September 11 – I was studying for my ‘O’levels examinations, buried in a mound of ten-year-series and past examination papers, biting on my pen as I tried to solve the biggest Math and Physics problems in my world. Suddenly, at 10pm that night, I heard the phone ring. Apparently, my aunty had called, urgency in her voice as she told my parents to switch on the TV. Switching to the news channel, we watched as the terrorist-controlled flights crashed into the twin towers of New York City’s World Trade Center. Our eyes stayed glued to the screen as we saw three New Yorkers catapulting out from the towers, pummeling to their horrific deaths. Not long later, another plane rammed into the Pentagon, symbol of power of the USA. We watched with gaping mouths, too shocked to believe an event so unfortunate had happened. As news anchors busied themselves reporting from the disaster scenes, I remembered thinking what a huge mess they were in. As the story and intentions of the hijackers became clear over the next few weeks, the world jumped as fear’s stranglehold tightened its grip. Facing the largest and most massive adversity of his career yet, President Bush declared the war on terror, changing the way airports, international routes and immigration functioned. Flying became such a hassle afterwards; bodies were searched for terrorist clues, tensions heightened at check-in counters as darker skin color facial hair growth made many the target of searches, resulting in mounting resentment. Yet the fact that the Taliban, led by Osama Bin Laden, had outright declared its goal to destroy and wreck the United States rendered the States with no choice, and security simply became stricter with the months.
2003: Terrorist attacks continued in different parts of the world; unwanted presents that shattered lives and made travelers paranoid. The beautiful resort island of Bali, where tourists flocked to in order to bask on the sun-washed beaches and crystal waters, was bombed. An attempt to strike at the Caucasians, it left over a thousand Australian dead on their last holiday ever. Yet for that year, my greatest memory was that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrom (SARs) epidemic. For the first time, I saw people all around wrapped in face masks, wary of any person who even sneezed or so much as rubbed their noses. Queues formed all around Asia as governments battled against this new strain of highly contagious flu. Entrances to public buildings were thronged with people, in ling to get their temperatures taken and to be given approval to pass through. Singapore, being such an open and small country, saw its GDP drop to an another low since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Its reliance on tourism and trade exposed its vulnerability to such an epidemic which hindered tourism. Thankfully, we managed to combat the disease and eventually to quell the fears of the nation, but it made us always on the alert, and at times, too paranoid for our good.
2004: This was the year I enrolled into university, and to enjoy before I started school, I took a vacation in Bali, certain that the previous year’s unfortunate events would not repeat. It was a resplendent holiday, forever etched in our memories. Nothing terrorist in nature occurred, and after the beautiful break, I started my first semester as a sophomore. 26th December was a project group mate’s birthday, and to celebrate she had planned a summer getaway in Phuket, Thailand, where she was to stay at Patong Beach. That morning at 7am, her flight got cancelled, as news came of the disastrous Tsunami – whose effects on East Asia are still present today. The thousands of lives its unannounced arrival claimed, the scent of destruction heavy in the air; again it was hard to believe that it had struck so near home. The wreckage was nauseating to take in. That Boxing Day, my group mate gave thanks to God for being alive, yet it was with sorrow that we all said a silent prayer for those who had died and were dying.
2005: Another natural disaster came not long after. On August 29, at least 1836 people were killed by an act of god named Hurricane Katrina. The US Gulf Coast was severely damaged; its people left devastated in the trail of its fury. A month before, 4 explosions rocked the transport network in London, injuring over 700 and killing 56. Another strike of terrorism, it struck new fear in the hearts of the city. Fanatically religious people who felt it was there duty to die in “Jihad”, or holy war, and in so becoming matyrs of their faith – what were on their minds as they prepared these bombs? What was their ultimate goal? Where were they strike next? When will they stop? Would they even stop?
2008/2009: It was a period of crisis, where defaults were the main theme. Panic, fear shook the world as people watched the collapse of the likes of Lehman Brothers; as they saw their life savings disappear with the crash of the stock markets; as suicide rates increased with the amount of defaulted debt. America cried, and its wails were heard all over the globe. America was too sunken in debt; all the secrets of large, previously highly acclaimed firms starting spilling out, dirtying the financial markets in every corner of the world. The world had never before been as inter-linked as it is now. Bubbles burst, left right and center – property, equity, and many other types of assets fell, losing all their capital gains. Credit default spreads, a measure of default risk, swelled, and yield curves dropped to all time lows, and countries came one after another to announce their booming stimulus plans, blowing billions of dollars into their economies to keep them afloat. North America and Europe were in a frenzy unheard of before, and the financial crisis was continually compared to the Great Depression of the 1930s. A monumental period documented in the pages of history, yet it seems some have already started to forget. Another epidemic struck in 2009, even more severe and rampant than SARS. The latest strain of the flu virus, the H1N1 disease, also known initially as pork flu, gripped the hearts of many with fear. From Mexico, where it was originally identified, this virus made use of international immigration and spread through cars, ships and aircraft. Tourism was severely affected, and this simply added salt to the fresh wound of the financial crisis.
2010: Most recently, even before the month of January is over, Haiti, a Caribbean fourth world country was hit by a 7.0 magnitude earthquake, on 12th January. One of the poorest nations in the world, Haiti is currently suffering from the after-effects of the quake, and its people are fraught with frustration and fury at the government, the slowness of international aid, and the anguish that has enveloped and crushed their hearts as close to 200,000 are confirmed dead. Looting is everywhere, with citizens emptying coffins and stealing them to sell; leaving the bodies to rot in the streets. The stench of death clogs the air, emotions are teetering on the edge and some have even lost their reason. There are reports of identified looters being torched alive, with passers-by watching the flames engulf him till they grew numb. Oppressed by hunger and anger in a molten mix of potent rage, Haiti suffers as we watch. Only a few are courageous enough to go there and provide aid. In the heightened tensions, its citizens are now furious with the US for using its control over the international airport to prioritize the safe return of its citizens.
So much sorrow, so much terror. Was that meant to be the recurring theme of the last decade? What will the next year bring? And those following after? We can only know with time as history is currently in the making.
Letter from a Shared Services Centre
The FSSC used to seem to be a generic mailbox with the teams they supported the only forms of distinction. Although there were many people supporting the finance function, it felt more like we were dealing with a faceless crowd, who got in to work at a different time schedule from us, who was just a phone call away but with whom emails were the preferred mode of communication, and who were an extended part of the team that we never really felt any connection to.
I had imagined them (an unknown number) of colleagues working furiously away at their excel spreadsheets, opening, closing and editing those cellular sheets by pure expert navigation of the keyboard, without ever needing to lift their hands to use the mouse. I had envisioned an overworked, tired crowd filled with endless demands of reports to be churned out and delivered, all working desperately to meet seemingly impossible-to-achieve end-of-day targets. To speak the truth, I had not known what to expect to see at the FSSC, nor if it was going to be a massive report-generating factory that resembled a telemarketing company as shown in Slumdog Millionaire.
On the first day we stepped into the Chennai campus headquarters at Haddows Road, we headed straight to Asia building, 4th floor, and what lay before us astonished me. At least 400 people were seated in the massive office space, and since the dividing wall between FSSC and HRSSC had been recently removed, the space was magnified and almost doubled. It felt like I had entered a library of students busy at work, but instead of the monotonous strained looking faces I had expected, there was chatter and a buzz in the air that I had not previously associated with the FSSC. The huge expanse had an orderliness about it; departments were marked out by desk partitions and pillars showing off clocks representing time across the bank’s footprint. One of the first signs that greeted you was the poster showing the fire escape route, and every few meters you can see arrows hanging from the ceilings to point to designated fire wardens in case of an emergency. The thing which particularly caught my attention was the large electronic notice board in the middle of the floor, which screamed out in bright neon colors “HAPPY BIRTHDAY XXX FROM TEAM YYY”. I was amazed at the effort taken to highlight the employees’ birthdays and remember thinking to myself that maybe even with a few hundred employees on one floor perhaps it is not so impersonal after all.
In the next three weeks that passed, the 2008 finance IGs spent most of our time in the meeting room near the pantry where we sat listening to the management of FSSC go through a wide range of topics. We were brought through the reasoning for business processes outsourcing, the business proposition and shared-service centre model of FSSC, its history and evolution up the value chain, the different teams which form the FSSC and their operational BAU and also the difficulties which the FSSC top team faced in managing a shared services centre. We spent many sessions with the team heads as they presented the teams’ roles in supporting the Finance function, and even worked on a few sample packs to get a flavor of what their Service Level Agreements (SLAs) encompassed. During the third week that we were there, our coordinator KK arranged for us to have “first-hand” days with the teams relevant to our roles and interest.
Interacting with the management team at a more personal level, we were made more aware of some of the reasons for miscommunication between the FSSC and the teams they support, the “one-step-removed” feeling often felt by staff in shared service centers, and the various initiatives being launched to negate these hindrances to a successful working and supportive relationship between FSSC and its stakeholders, and how important it was to engage their staff to create an environment where the staff would want to stay. We were told that with Barclays, Shell and other competitors setting up shop in Chennai recently, the FSSC now had to be more competitive and change their strategy in retaining their valuable employees. With the aim to keep attrition low and Q12 scores high, it is not an easy task for the FSSC management to plan and carry out activities to generate goodwill among the staff and keep them connected and engaged. Aside from that, we were also reminded over and over again of the large risk-mitigating framework that is in place in case of any contingencies, which was rather impressive as I had never known so much preparation and pre-emption was involved behind. We also realized that there is an official voice of customer “C-First” platform through which we could give our feedback on the FSSC directly to its top team.
During our stay there we encountered varying levels of stomach upsets during the initial stages of adapting to the food and countless spices. We also went out and interacted with the FSSC staff and learnt more about their culture, and their warm and sincere hospitality was touching as much as it was surprising. I took away from Chennai a lot more than I had expected, and I think trips like this honestly make a significant difference to the teams we work with. In three short weeks, the FSSC has ceased to be just a 4-letter mailbox title to me, but is now a place where close to 700 staff operating out of Chennai work to meet and partner the Finance function in various changing projects and deadlines through a global array of time differences, and it will remain a part of the bank which will continually grow as the bank evolves.
Time for a wake-up call.
I need DRIVE.
I need friends who will drive me and motivate me to push myself beyond the limits set by others. I need people who I see myself growing together with for years ahead; friends whose constant aim to improve themselves and development of character spur me to better myself with each passing day.
The past 6 weeks have been repetitive and humdrum; I do the same data entry work everyday; I rotate between meeting friends, trying to catch up with what each of them are doing in their internships; but I feel so empty and unfulfilled; like a huge crater in the middle of the desert; dry and desperate for an oasis.
I am sick of conversations that lead nowhere; of constant discussion of the same old issues; I feel that with some people I am forever stuck in a rut; a same cycle of topics that I dreadfully want to stop discussing. I crave a new burst of enthusiasm and encouragement; I want to meet people who have so much passion in them for all the right reasons to make me want to burn with fire just like them. I need a goal with a proper target that I can focus my attention on and know that at any point in time, I am nearer to that goal than I was before.
I want to make every day an improvement to my life; not one day a waste that I will look back and waste more time regretting. I want to live a life, each moment moving forward with the exuberance and adrenaline rush that comes with knowing where I am heading, and so very excited at reaching there because I know I have come so far and put in so much.
I decided today to embark on a tangible project– research on poverty and income disparity in Asia; and how microfinancing has helped to eliminate a tiny bit of that. I hope anyone of you who has information on that will be kind enough to share your knowledge; let’s be iron sharpening iron. To contribute is to give a part of yourself, and in doing so, is to learn much more than you would have keeping it to yourself.
Dear friends, I honestly need encouragement and motivation from you, and if you think you would like to be that one person who would want to push me further, to help me and to help yourself, please, by all means do so. Thank you.
Oh oh, we’re in trouble; Is someone going to burst our bubble?
In 1997, I was in Primary 6, didn’t give a hoot about the world, nor the fact that the Asian Financial Crisis was hitting all the Asian countries in full force, wrecking havoc whose effects on certain countries like Indonesian have left them still recovering from the shock.
This year its 2007, I’m in University, and through my readings and courses as well as of course, my new interest in the world whose effect on all of us I can no longer deny, I read over and over again, about the 1997 crisis. It’s weird to read a Caucasian’s reports on the effects of the Asian Crisis, and weirder to find that it seems in the field of Asian Monetary Policy, there are more good writers from the Western part of the world than from Asian. Even my Asian Monetary Professor is American.
Apart from that brief digression, I really want to talk about the possibility of another crisis, another crash, but this time, perhaps not just involving Asia, but perhaps America (very likely) and maybe also Europe. I’m not advocating that such a scenario is good; but looking at the news everyday that mark yet another all time high on the stock exchange, in Singapore, China, and many other places, where the prices of goods are going atrociously high. In a time and age where the economy is booming, everyone is busy swiping out their plastics to make use of more and more credit, it seems the stage is set for a market correction. Maybe Crash is a word too harsh; corrrection may be more correct (pun intended).
As I mentioned a few posts ago, hedge funds are taking on dangerous amounts of debt, and together with the package, risks that they may be unable to handle. Everywhere, it seems the press is screaming with news about inflation curbing, in the USA, Thailand, China; all the Central Banks are scratching their heads over whether to maintain or increase interest rates. If you were to keep up with the news everyday, you’d realize that every country seems troubled by any news that may hint at increasing inflation, yet at the same time, investors with money to act on these news are moving capital in and out of countries, hedging their bets that these interest rates increases or decreases will move currencies and bond prices in the direction of their favour.
Everything happens so fast, many are pumping in much money and taking on leverage to accelerate the growth of their wealth. Suddenly it feels like we’re trapped in an air tight bubble that keeps getting larger and thinner. Will it be another bubble that bursts? How can we identify it? Someone wise one said that you can never identify a bubble until it bursts, but by then it would have been too late.
Alas, writing the history of the future is harder than writing the history of the past (in Eichengreen’s beautiful words). Only time will be able to unravel the mystery that has left so many worrying about.
two thumbs up to hedgeweek.com
I got a shock when I checked my blog stats last night, because the chart showed that 156 people had visited my blog yesterday, out of which 120+ people read the post I wrote on “hedge funds leaning too much on leverage” (see below).
At first I thought the blog statistics screwed up, but apparently my blog was featured on hedgeweek.com. It’s seriously surprising, but extremely encouraging. Imagine that! My first attempt at writing about hedge funds makes me more motivated than ever. Now I intend to write more on Finance, and everything that I hope to share with you. Thank you HEDGEWEEK.COM!
